"The war with Iraq- A refugee crisis waiting to happen"

UN agencies have predicted that nearly 1.5 million refugees and asylum seekers are likely to try and flee from Iraq as a result of the war. Yet planning for a refugee crisis by the international community is woefully inadequate argues Gil Loescher a leading refugee expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies.

The refugees will flee into Iraq's neighbouring countries. It is unlikely that these countries can provide adequate assistance for these refugees or that they will receive the International aid that would enable them to do so. These conditions will create a secondary movement of refugees heading onto the EU.

"The problem of secondary movement poses considerable challenges for the EU" warns Gil Loescher. To date EU policies have been about migratory control and entry restrictions, Gil Loescher advocates a more preventative approach, "improving conditions in origin of conflict in development aid, in terms of political diplomacy, resolving the long staying conflicts that prevent people from returning home".